Lucy Letby, probabilities and tunnel vision, part 1

Following on from JC’s recent backgrounders on prosecutor’s tunnel vision, we get to the main event: part one of a multi-parter about the Lucy Letby case.

“We’ve found a witch. May we burn her?”

— Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Preface

This piece took a long time to write. JC is no criminal lawyer, has no particular axe to grind, and found himself constantly wondering whether he had been afflicted by his own tunnel vision. Had he too fallen into the oubliette?

Ms. Letby¹ may have committed these awful crimes,…